Health Innovators
Health Innovators

Episode 111 · 10 months ago

Big trends that will change everything in healthcare w/ Mauro Guillen


Change can be scary, or it can be exhilarating - it’s all a matter of perception. That said, one thing is for sure: the only way to make sense of change is to embrace it.

And, in healthcare, change has been happening at a rapid pace, even before COVID hit the scene. But the tempo has certainly picked up.

Mauro Guillen understands how trends work and the implications of their effect on the trajectory of innovation in the future.

Which is why we’re thrilled he’s sitting down with our viewers and listeners to shed some light on where we are now - and where we’re headed in the next decade.

A lot of us are concerned about the future and where we’ll be in 5, 10, even 20 years. If you count yourself as an entrepreneur who’s got one foot in the now and the other searching for a foothold on the next trend, we’re here to spot you!

Here are the show highlights: 

  • Two big trends affecting healthcare today - and in the future (1:49)
  • The digitization of medical records, and the new wave of telemedicine (3:23)
  • New initiatives among smaller to mid-sized companies in healthcare (6:24)
  • What you need to do when so many things are changing (8:27)
  • Four myths of the ‘gray’ population (14:02)
  • This is the only possible response to the changes happening around you (26:43) 

Guest Bio 

Mauro Guillen is the author of over 40 scholarly articles and 10 books, including the bestselling "2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything."

A former Guggenheim and Fulbright Fellow, Mauro is currently serving as the Dean of Cambridge Judge Business School.

Frequently appearing on networks such as NPR, Bloomberg TV, CCTV (China News), CNN en español, and other broadcast media, he continues to write, consult, and collaborate regularly with organizations including Accenture, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, RAND Corporation, and AFI.

You can purchase Mauro’s book, 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, on Amazon and other retailers. If you’d like to reach out to Mauro, you can connect with him on LinkedIn at Mauro Guillen.

You're listening to health innovators, a podcast and video show about the leaders, influencers and earlier doctors who are shaping the future of healthcare. I'm your host, Dr Roxy Movie. Welcome back to the show health innovators. On today's episode I have a very, very special guest, Morrow Ian. He is the author of twenty and thirty, how the biggest trends are going to collide and shape the future of everything. Welcome to the showmorrow, Oh roxy, thank you so much for inviting me. It's a blisser to be here. It's so good to have you here. So I wanted to start off the conversation with just a little bit of your background and what prompted you to even write this book. So I am originally from Spain. Done with my accents from I leave the United States for twenty five years and just a six months ago I moved to the UK to be the denut Gambridge judge. Business School, I was trained as a sociologist and US, an economy stand up. No, maybe about us. Six or seven years ago I started to do quite a few present days fros about what was going on in the world as part of my job and I did take it that my audiences we're getting very, very concerned about the future, and so I decided to write this book as a Roadman as a way for people to understand whether the key threatends and where some of the really important things that they need to take into account if you want to be effective and successful in the future. Yeah, that's Great and we're so appreciative that you took the time to write this book because it really is an incredible road map for every leader, every entrepreneur around the world, not even, you know, just in the United States or not even just in health care. Certainly, you know, this show is the health innovator show, where we're really focused on healthcare. So a lot of the...

...questions that I'll ask today will be be within that context. So I wanted to kind of start off with what are some of the big trends that are affecting healthcare or are going to continue to affect healthcare from now until twenty thirty? Well, several of those, friends have to do precisely with some of these successes that medicine and better hygiene and the public health measures have had over the last style, let's say, fifty or sixty years. So one big challenge. Of course we'll be that, beginning with Japan and the China, Europe and the United States, we're going to have thirty five forty percent of the population about the age of sixty and, as you know, chronic conditions are more frequent in that age group and of course eighty percent of healthcare spending, or up to eighty percent of healthcare spending, has to do with chronic conditions. So this is something that I think is going to be very, very consequential. The other big trend that I would mention is technology, technology, gold change and of course, you know, medicine has always been a fertile ground for new innovations using technology and Miri machines and all the rest. But in addition to that, now we have, I think, these amazing trend of fel medicine that we weren't really using that much in Europe or the United States, but if you remember, in south said in Africa, they've been using for ten years. But of course the pandemic forced us to experiment with that remote work, with a remote shopping, with remote learning, and also with medicine at a distance, with healthcare at Atleastance. So I would probably say those are the two biggest trends. So, you know, I think you make such a valid point. We've had a lot of conversations about how covid has accelerated a lot of adoption. You know, the healthcare ecosystem is, you know, so entrenched with a lot of the old ways of working and you know, Tele Medicine is not new. It's been around for twenty five years and you know we've all had these, you know, players... the market place that we're saying we couldn't do it for a variety of reasons and then we're kind of forced into it now a sudden. We can do it. We've proven to ourselves that we can. How do you think that the COT covid has accelerated some of the trends that you've talked about in your book? You know, I wondered after reading that through Covid, you know, is it? Is it really going to be like two thousand and twenty seven now instead of twenty and thirty exactly? I always joke that the title of the book now should be two thousand and twenty seven or two thousand and twenty eight, because the future that I describing it is now arriving test. COVID has, for the most part, accelerated everything is. has accelerated population aging, and some people find this country intuitive, but it's actually very straightforward. Young couples have postponed having children during the pandemic, right because of the uncertainty, because maybe they lost their jobs. So in the United States, maybe about three hundred thousand fewer babies than expected. We're born in the year two thousand and twenty. Were still waiting for the numbers for two thousand and twenty one, and so this is, in other words, than accelerating population aging right if you people postpone having babies. Another thing that has got an accelerated, unfortunately, is economic inequality, and I think this also has an impact on healthcare in terms of access, in terms of at what extend people are willing to go to the doctor to take care of themselves on time, before things the health condition to get rates. So that is also something that has been accepted by the pandemic. And then the last thing, of course, is technological adoption. This is the most obvious example, and let me just add one thing. WHO said earlier about the health sector. You see the big advantage that we have now is not only that we have platforms such as the one that we're using now, but also that the healthcare sector over the last twenty years has gone through the process of digitizing records. Right, I still remember when you would go to the doctor and the doctor would...

...actually get an x ray on film, right, but then if you switch doctors, if you shoots residences, you move that to some other part of the country, you would need to bring your x Rays with you, whereas now they're all digitize. So any doctor, any nurse, any any anybody can access your your record from whatever world, and it would take you weeks to get those and you had to go and drive and pick them up, exactly right. So, so I think the digitization of medical records is something that will greatly facilitate these new wave of telling everything that we're going through. So you touched on so many different things that I wanted to dig deeper into, but I know we all have a finite amount of time here, so I'm going to try to be really specific and targeted with my questions. There are so many companies out there right now and healthcare, those those industry dinosaurs or incumbents, and you've got a lot of mid market companies as well. I won't spend too much time on the early stage companies because I think for the most part those folks are already seen what you kind of put out and so many it mapped out in the book. It kind of already starting companies to leverage those trends and focusing on the mid market companies and maybe some of the longest, more established corporate companies would do. Are you starting to see an uptick and them kind of recognizing that need for growth through innovation and capitalizing on those trends, or or we a little bit slower and making that happen? So I certainly see a lot of innovation, a lot of new initiatives among smaller need sized companies in healthcare, for example. When it comes to population aging, as you know, there's a whole bunch of investors and entrepreneurs will have jumped on these trend of providing, for example, living space for people about a certain age, living space that is specifically designed for their needs...

...and for their preferences. And I see also in certain areas of technology, just you may give you too very quick examples. One is three, the printing how we're starting to use in medical applications. For these should wrap trans plans for dental pieces and so and so, for d printing and, of course we're starting to see this as well for therapies in other fields, using other fields of technology such as, for example, virtual reality and then Hans Reality and now, perhaps in the near future, than Meta vers. So in in many different kinds of areas in healthier I see a lot of innovation, a lot of entrepreneurship. Yeah, absolutely. So. What are some of the tips or tricks that these leaders need to be mindful of as they are kind of observing these trends and want to be able to figure out how they can best take advantage of them? I think you give a couple of examples in your book. Lego and Phillips are, I think, really great examples, if you don't mind sharing those with our audience. Well, Lego is this Danish that toy company. You know the building blocks. As you know, traditional toy companies have been wiped out by video games and by other alserative more you know, take enabled kinds of games, even for very small children. But they have fun. Not only survived, they have thrived and every year they incase their sales, and that's because they reposition themselves to become a multigenerational company, so involving children in the games, but not only children, also their parents, grandparents and so on and so forth. and they continue to innovate like Tracy in terms of launching new designs and capturing the imagination of people. Right Phillips, other all the Dutch company. In this case, you know, they made a ton of money a hundred years ago with the incandescent bulb, the electric bolt g in the US also get a ton...

...of money out of that, but these days you cannot make much money with that because it's a commodity. Prices are very low. They also went through a face of making TV's and making video recorders, also commodities. These days they realize, look, the world is changing, population is aging. Our advantage is research and development. So why not focus on healthcare? And Phillips says, you know, one of the top four companies in the world for Mris and other related equipment, and they are now the rising seventy percent of the sales and more than that in terms of profits from healthcare. So they examine the landscape and they decided let's switch gears. What we we're doing in the passage no good. We need to align ourselves with these trends. I like to use the metaphor of the surfer right. So I think what we need to do, when so many things are changes, be like a surfer, catch the biggest wave you can. You can imagine. So those are great examples, and so help us understand what is the difference between those companies or those leaders of let's say Lego and Phillips, versus a blockbuster and Kodak, who took very different paths? Absolutely, absolutely, code. That key is the company. It took a very long time for CODAC to go by GROP finally, but it did look like twenty years and they didn't see it coming right really how the world of photography was changing. But look at Lego and Philix. What happened was that they went through several CEOS and each of those CEOS, you know, lasted for no more than door three years and they essentially didn't want to change the company, didn't want to realign it with those, you know, big trends out there. So they persisted at the old recipe, the way which they had been making money for a long time, and the reason why those CEOS lasted only two or three years on average is that, you know, that wasn't enough. It wasn't enough to cut...

...costs. You needed a fundamental realignment of the company, given what was going on in the world at the time. And so most of the time companies manage that realignment when they bring in somebody from the outside who has a fresh perspective. It's not always the case, but it's frequently the case that, more often than not, that an outsider is the only person who is really in a position to turns thing around. That's such a great point in when you think about healthcare, it's such a risk averse industry and I think a lot of times the perception is that when they look at all of these big trends, making these investments, making these leaps, this diversification, these these big moves seem to be perceived as really high risk moves and in sometimes I think we overlook the fact that maybe there's a greater risk of staying with the status quo and then leveraging the big trends that you talked about in your book. No, absolutely, I mean again go that, but you know, talking about risk coveris industries I come for the most risk averse industry of all, which is education. Okay, if you think healthcare, sports high on that, education is surely the winner in that in that contest. So I think what's really, really important is to understand that right now not only just one thing is changing. We have so many things changing. Population trends, economic trends, technology, society, the balance of your political power, everything is changing all at once, and so you know, incremental adaptations, I think, are most of the time not going to be enough. So you have to go one step beyond that. Now, I'm not claiming here that every company should reinvent itself inside out, from DC to bottom. That's not what I'm arguing. Okay, but you know, there is, I think, a happy medium between just incremental change at one end and hold stale transformation...

...of the entire company a the other. So depending on you know, which company, which organization we're talking about, they may want to strike out the balance at a different point, but I would avoid the two experience. It's a really good point, a really good point. Hey, it's Dr Roxy here with a quick break from the conversation. Are you trying to figure out what moves you need to make to survive and thrive in the new covid economy. I want every health innovator to find their most viable and profitable pivot strategy, which is why I created the covid proof your business pivot kit. The pivot kit is a step by step framework that helps you find your best pivot strategy. It walks you through six categories you need to examine for a three hundred and sixty degree view of your business. I call them the six critical pivot lenses. As you make your way through this comprehensive kit, you'll be armed with the tools, tips and strategies you need to make sure you can pivot with speed withoutt missing out on critical details and opportunities. Learn more at legacy DNACOM backslash kit. So I want to go back to a phrase that you use in your book, called Gray as the new black, and we've touched on a little bit. You know, with the the increase in the population of sixty plus, there's so many ramifications of that in healthcare. Right you talked about chronic disease in the need for more sometimes there's a perception that this sixty plus generation or population isn't so technologically savvy and you know, they're not using the IPOD that I had, they're not necessarily wanting to text with, you know, their vendors, that they're working with our healthcare providers. So talk a little bit about maybe some of the myths and misconceptions that we have the attributes of this great population. Yeah, so myth number one is...

...that it is a small segment, and of course it's not because numerically, is becoming really big and it will be the largest. Myth number two is that they have no perch in power. Look, in the United States, eighty percent of the net worth is in the hands of people about the age of sixty. Eighty percent of the net worth, which, by the way, also triggers another issue, which is inequality. Right, I mean that net worth is not evenly distributed and that's a, I think, an important consideration for healthcare organizations. A third myth is this lack of familiarity with technology. Now, you know this will be even if it's true. Of if they were true, the problem will be taken care of as time goes by. Right, because now we're seeing baby boomers going into retirement, turning sixty five, seventy, seventy five and of course many of them have used it at work, so they are capable of using phones, and that I but and look, the pandemic has also invited many people who were reluctant to use technology to use technology right. So the pandemic, I think, also marksa before and then after. And then the last myth, which I think is something that we need to carefully examine terms of its implications, is that people about the age of sixty have a different lifestyle than people below the age of sixty. This has changed because, as you know, it's not only that the lifespam hassing increase, that we live longer, it's so si that the health spam hmm asens, meaning that a sixteen year old, a sixty five year old, a seventy five year old today has a much more active lifestyle that somebody of the same age two generations ago or three generations ago. So that's also something that is a myth, that these people are different. No, they're not. I seventy year old today can, you know, have a lifestyle that he's as active or even, you know, more active than that of a fifty year old. So I think we need to change our mindset about some of these, you know, inherited stereotypes from the past.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So you said something about purchasing power and I want to shift the conversation a little bit from the gray market to women and in the shift in wealth to women, in the shift in buying decisions. So you know, ten at least ten years ago, I remember coming across statistics that showed that over eighty percent of buying decisions were made by women, whether they were the ones that even in single family income homes, still a lot of the purchasing decisions were being made by women, even if they didn't have a job. Now you're seeing that kind of maybe amplified with the shift and well for women. So talk about some of those trends and then how do you think that that affects healthcare? Well, women's economic progress in the labor market in terms of their professional careers and all that. It has been remarkable, especially in the United States but also in other comes around the world. This is not to say, of course, that discrimination doesn't exist based on gender. Of course there is discrimination. A progress is has been phenomenal. Just before the pandemic, the US sensors bureau reported that in thirty nine percent of American households with a man and a woman, the woman made more money than the man. Okay, now the pandemic, as you know, for the most part has been a setback. Yeah, for women right, because of, you know, the unequal distribution of tasks in the household, and many women withdrew from their jobs. They with their jobs as a result of having their children not at school but rather at home. But I think that progress will ressume now and by the year twenty thirty, the US government itself but adicts that in more than half of American households women are going to be making more money than the man in that household. Right now, that's a remarkable you know, you and I were much progress when you and I were born. That was in the reality out there right. I mean the world has changed, especially in terms of the role that women play in the...

...end the society and in the economy. So this will have major ramifications. And you know what, the something really important for healthcare. As women have more money in their pockets, there's three categories of spending that go up for the four households because they spend that money not just on themselves but also on their children, their grandchildren, maybe they're their grandparents. One is education, so women are more likely to spend more money in education if they have that money available. Another one is insurance. They prefer more comprehensive insurance. And the third one is healthcare. So women are more incline. This is true not just in the United States, it's true in every country in the world. So if women are, as you said, not just decision makers, but also they're the earners or the main earners of households and body U can deterary. We would be in a situation which in more than half of American households that's the case. Then I think that is good news for insurance, that is good news for education, so my industry. That is also, I think, very good news for healthcare, because women care more about the future. That is a unifying thing when you think about education, insurance and healthcare. It's all about the future. We mean place a bigger premium on the future than men. Right and of course, in the health care sector this is really important because prevention is everything. Right, we want to prevent things, we want people to go to the doctor, we want people to have health insurance, and women are more likely to do that and hopefully they can in this new position that they have. Now they have more tools instruments of that, these postional you know, they should be more money, more registrative as maybe so that other members of the household also day care of themselves better. You know, and I think to that point, there's this huge gap between in women's health. So if you look at statistically the investments that's made in healthcare, a lot of women's health issues have been overlooked, and so I think what you're talking about where their higher earning power with women and but higher purchasing decisions means they might be more investment pouring into fimtech. And...

...then also you'll seeing more diversity. So a lot of the clinical trials, a lot of the piloting that's done is really with white men predominantly, but you don't see a lot of minority populations and you don't see a lot of females involved in that. So I also think that as women have more of that purchasing power and wealth, that you'll also start to see maybe even just the healthcare landscape start to shift because of that. Oh, absolutely, I invitedly agree with everything that you said. But I must add that all of that is on the one hand, but on the other there's also some hasards that women are experiencing because now they work outside of a householding greater numbers and they have more responsibilities. But of the same time, US, I would mentioned earlier, they continue to take on more than fifty percent of the tasks at home. Right. See, reason, we think we can do it all and more. Yeah, yeah, but the problem. Yeah, but the problem, as you know, is that then, this is very well documented in epidemiological studies, is that levels of stress among working women have been going through the roof and stays. Of course, he's a condition that makes you more likely to experience other chronic conditions. So, in addition to more exposure to stress, women who work out of a household that increasingly also drinking more, they're more likely to use the acts, unfortunately, and also smoking. So so we have to keep an eye of me. What I'm saying is that there are many benefits to these there are many great things that are happened, but at the same time also there are some passiens that are affecting women to a great extent and in the past, and we need to pay attention to them. I think that's such a great point, because alcohol consumption statistics have increased significantly since the pandemic, and women are con are a big...

...part of that increase. That's happening. You know. I think the solution to this, and I'm kind of being a little facetious here, but also kind of just hoping that it comes to fruition, is you talk a lot about robots. Met Him and it makes me think of the jetsons, right, and who doesn't want a rosy in their life? And so part of the can help women and men mitigate some of the stress that we're experiencing is to be able to have some of these robots like Rosie in the house to help us share some of that workload. Well, look, I I'm a fan of the robot that cleans the floor, you know, because I used to have a vacuum cleaner and it's just so nice to be able to tell the robot just doing house look home. Robotics is going to be huge in the near future. We're only seeing the beginnings of this and, by the way, I think this is something that will be of great benefit to people about the age of eighty, of ninety, because they're going to be abble to stay in their home much longer if they can use some of these robotics or some of the household tasks for lifting heavyweights, you know, like the shopping bag for the re these on that. So I think home robotics, it's going to be big and it's going to particularly, I think, be beneficial to people about a certain age when they can no longer, you know, undertake or perform all of the different tasks about themselves. Yes, yeah, absolutely so. The last trend that I want to talk about as we start to wrap up here is the trends of Asia and population growth there, as well as Africa. When I'm talking to health innovators, there's a lot of conversation about trying to enter into the US market. May and and this is not everybody's experience, but it is a common experience that I hear is, you know, a struggled for years trying to penetrate the US market and there's just so many barriers and I'm actually having more success going outside of the...

US. May Be penetrating the Asian market first, and or even some of the markets in Europe and then being able to take those cases, those those that clinical evidence, and then be able to come back and have more success in the US market. How do some of the trends that you talk about in your book potentially affect healthcare on a global level? Yeah, so I think what's important is to take another step before you think about geography, which is which segment of the market Tad getting, especially by age, because you see in the world we have markets that are aging very, very quickly, like Japan, China, Europe, a little bit, the United States. About others that are still very young, like India, like southside in Africa, like the Middle East? So first I think you need to figure out, as a company, your products or your future products, which segment you want to target. Maybe you want to target all of them and then see. The second step is the geography. Which parts of the world you see that segment growing the fastest and therefore then you should be perhaps going there. So if you target the population about the age of sixty or seventy that's growing in the United States as much as city is growing in China, you know, Japan, of course, is in I in that class in and of itself, but right that you got regard. So I would say one, one preliminary step, especially when it comes to services for people, like healthcare and right so I would say the same thing about financial services. I would say the same thing about education, which is first segment the market, so by age, by income level, all of those things, and then take a look. The second step is the one that you suggested. They can look at in which geography is in the world that segment is growing the fastest, and that should give you a clue as to how you should prioritize your investments and your marketing budget for different parts of the world. Awesome. So last question for you as we wrap up here. What advice or guidance do... have for the healthcare leaders that are listening to this show? How do they leverage the opportunities that are kind of nested in your book and in the the big trends that you talk about? Yes, I would say I would make a three very, very simple points. The first one is, yes, there's a lot of things changing. There's quite a few challenges and threats ahead, but be optimistic. That's also opportunities embedded in these huge transformations that we're going through. Point number two, the only possible response to all of these changes is change itself. If you remain in static as an organization, most likely you will not be better off in the near future. You're going to be worse off. So change is the only possible response to change. And then number three, when you see that all of these things are changing, make decisions, but never make decisions that are Irreversi always keep your options open. Cross and threshold, but leave it or open just in case you may, you know, need to go back to the other room. So never make decisions that look you in that don't give you the opportunity to correct course in the future. I always say this whenever you're making an important investment, whenever you make an important decision these days, always think right before you actually commit to it, as to how you can make a modification, how you can, you know, correct course in real time. Don't look yourself into a path of action, don't run yourself into a port. I think that's so important that I just want to emphasize that because so many times we think we analyze these strategies, we identify our target audience, how we're going to position our products and solutions going forward, and we've got a strategy and plan and then we get so stubborn with that that the market is talking to us when we start to execute and into the market in the real world, and sometimes we just ignore that or we see that as a sense of failure...

...instead of a sense of that's part of the process, this iteration that you're talking about. Absolutely I think it's so much better to arrive at where you want to go under changing circumstances, by taking smallest steps right, so you you know what you want to go but you want to preserve these freedom, these degrees of freedom, so that you can, you know, change directions slightly here or they're, depending on how the circumstances involved. Awesome. Thank you so much for sharing your wisdom and insights with our audience today. It's been really invaluable. Oh, thank you so much roxy for inviting me. So if anyone wants to follow up with you after, how would they follow you or connect with you? But the best is Linkedin, so please connect with me on Linkedin. I frequently post on that network and that that way we can also communicate. Awesome. All right. Well, thank you so much for joining me today. Thank you so much for listening. I know you're busy working to bring your life changing innovation to market and I value your time and attention. To get the latest episodes on your mobile device, automatically subscribe to the show on your favorite podcast APP like apple podcast, spotify and stitcher. Thank you for listening and I appreciate everyone who shared the show with friends and colleague. See You on the next episode of Health Innovators.

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